Chillingly Accurate Predictions by Paul Harvey April 3, 1965

PAUL HARVEY’S ‘IF I WERE THE DEVIL’ TRANSCRIPT

If I were the devil … If I were the Prince of Darkness, I’d want to engulf the whole world in darkness. And I’d have a third of it’s real estate, and four-fifths of its population, but I wouldn’t be happy until I had seized the ripest apple on the tree — Thee. So I’d set about however necessary to take over the United States. I’d subvert the churches first — I’d begin with a campaign of whispers. With the wisdom of a serpent, I would whisper to you as I whispered to Eve: ‘Do as you please.’

“To the young, I would whisper that ‘The Bible is a myth.’ I would convince them that man created God instead of the other way around. I would confide that what’s bad is good, and what’s good is ‘square.’ And the old, I would teach to pray, after me, ‘Our Father, which art in Washington…’

“And then I’d get organized. I’d educate authors in how to make lurid literature exciting, so that anything else would appear dull and uninteresting. I’d threaten TV with dirtier movies and vice versa. I’d pedal narcotics to whom I could. I’d sell alcohol to ladies and gentlemen of distinction. I’d tranquilize the rest with pills.

“If I were the devil I’d soon have families that war with themselves, churches at war with themselves, and nations at war with themselves; until each in its turn was consumed. And with promises of higher ratings I’d have mesmerizing media fanning the flames. If I were the devil I would encourage schools to refine young intellects, but neglect to discipline emotions — just let those run wild, until before you knew it, you’d have to have drug sniffing dogs and metal detectors at every schoolhouse door.

“Within a decade I’d have prisons overflowing, I’d have judges promoting pornography — soon I could evict God from the courthouse, then from the schoolhouse, and then from the houses of Congress. And in His own churches I would substitute psychology for religion, and deify science. I would lure priests and pastors into misusing boys and girls, and church money. If I were the devil I’d make the symbols of Easter an egg and the symbol of Christmas a bottle.

“If I were the devil I’d take from those, and who have, and give to those wanted until I had killed the incentive of the ambitious. And what do you bet? I could get whole states to promote gambling as thee way to get rich? I would caution against extremes and hard work, in Patriotism, in moral conduct. I would convince the young that marriage is old-fashioned, that swinging is more fun, that what you see on the TV is the way to be. And thus I could undress you in public, and I could lure you into bed with diseases for which there is no cure. In other words, if I were the devil I’d just keep right on doing on what he’s doing.

Paul Harvey, good day.”

IS COLLEGE STILL A GOOD IDEA??

THE SLOW DEATH OF COLLEGE??


All my young life, I knew I was going to college. College had propelled my father from a sharecropper’s boy to a clinical psychologist with a Ph.D. by about age 27. That changed the trajectory of our family and greatly influenced my early thinking.

There was just never any doubt about that. College, at that time, represented several things to me:  a “university experience” away from home, lots of friends in a Greek fraternity, and a good job afterwards.

With my academic scholarship, my working, my parent’s college funding and a few student loans, I was able to get through my four year degree at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, in just 3.5 years, even while working 40-56 hours a week.  Then I completed law school at what was then called Memphis State University.

I always have wanted the same for my children if they felt led to pursue a degree. However, college has changed a lot in the 25 years since I enrolled.

For one, student loans are no longer an added help for many, but a way of life. It’s worse than most of us realize. Americans' outstanding student loan debt obligations now exceed $1 trillion! (It takes one thousand billion to make a trillion.)  Parents have mostly divorced, which often decimates any savings plan for college. Due to some abysmal public schools, many parents use any extra to get their kids in private schools, which prevents college savings as well.  Or Mom may stay home and homeschool and thus forego another income, which curtails any saving for higher education.  Other parents are themselves facing a bad recession with pay cuts or unemployment. Thus, students borrow more money to pay rising costs of tuition. The average borrower graduating from a public or private institution owes an unprecedented $25,250.00 each.

Rutgers University did a study and found that only 53 percent of recent U.S. four-year university grads were even working full-time jobs. Fewer had jobs where their degree was required at all. In fact, I have heard that many Starbucks employees actually have a college degree.

More than one new source has started to see a striking similarity between student loans and the height of the real estate bubble, yet a student borrower cannot discharge or even refinance his debts in bankruptcy. The Student Loan Forgiveness Act of 2012 has been proposed as yet another federal bailout that is supposed to create jobs.

As drafted, this new law would create full loan forgiveness up to a limit of $45,520.00 for current borrowers who have paid the equivalent of 10 percent of their discretionary income for 10 years or who are able to do so over the coming years. It caps interest rates on federal student loans at 3.4 percent and converts many private loans into federal loans.

Universities and colleges get that student loan money in tuition, which goes up every single year. Some think they play the same modern role as some real estate agents and mortgage brokers played during the housing bubble that burst so violently in 2008.
Since all major colleges were founded as Christian institutions, this slide toward shady business on the backs of debt-ridden students does smack of hypocrisy. If you are surprised to learn that our nation’s oldest and most respected colleges were founded to teach people to best apply the Bible, just look at the
Ivy League’s mottos:

Brown University
In Deo Speramus (In God We Hope)
Columbia University
In lumine Tuo videbimus lumen (In Thy light shall we see the light)
Dartmouth College
Vox clamantis in deserto (The voice of one crying in the wilderness)
Harvard University
Veritas (Truth)
Princeton University
Dei sub numine viget (Under God's power she flourishes)
University of Pennsylvania
Leges sine moribus vanae (Laws without morals are useless)
Yale University
Lux et veritas (Light and truth)


It appears that the “university experience” of these days is different from 1987—lots  of crushing student debt, almost no job options using the degree, and a bankrupt government that will have to do more with less.  There are certain intangibles that going away to a university can provide, and well off families will always be able to pay for those. But, for the more average family, it does not appear so.  In fact, if you look at economics, college may not be such a wise investment these days.

If you get your diploma and serve a two-year electrician’s apprenticeship, at maybe $25,000.00 a year in whatever part of the country is hiring (at the moment it’s North Dakota and Montana), you are paid to learn the trade. You will be earning an average of $43,000.00 in year three.  By year seven, many in the field are making $60,000.00 yearly.

If you get a degree in business, you give up four years of working many true full-time jobs. You might be able work some, but you are likely not to make much during college.  Following college, you will likely be unemployed for a while. You might decide you have to work at an $18,000.00 a year retail job for a year. Then, if you are selected, you might become a branch management trainee for something like a rental car company. That would net you $36,000.00 in years two and three of that job on average. However, if you graduated with $35,000.00 debt, your net worth suffers severely. And remember, the electrician started earning much earlier than you did.

The net spending ability of the electrician after year seven totals $296,000.00.

Conversely, the trainee has had $98,000.00 minus monthly payments with interest that are higher than the electrician’s payment on his new Camaro.  If the trainee paid off the student loan straightaway, he has had only $63,000.00 to spend.

Are we seeing the death of widespread college education? The rise of online courses seems to suggest that the brick and mortar places are fading fast. Branded courses that are tied closely to industries (like aircraft engine maintenance) seem to place many of their graduates.

Is the education bubble the next to burst? What do you think?
______
Mr. Peel seeks justice for those injured in car accidents, work place incidents, medical malpractice, and nursing homes. He often addresses churches, clubs and groups without charge. Mr. Peel may be reached though PeelLawFirm.com wherein other articles may be accessed.

Financial Crisis Simplified

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS IN SIMPLE TERMS

For years, deposits into your savings account gained about 1%. The bank then made mortgage loans at say, 7% to anxious homeowners.  The banks made 6%, which was referred to as the “spread.”  The bank is loaning $144,000 in exchange for a future monthly stream of payments of close to $1,000 per month for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. The lower the interest rate a homebuyer gets, the higher the price the bank is actually paying for the income stream.

A few homebuyers would lose their home to foreclosure, and that loss was factored in. However, it was rather rare, because homebuyers had to bring a whopping 20% of the purchase price in cash, along with fees, to the closing. (On an $180,000 home, that’s $36,000 plus closing costs).  They were unlikely to walk away from all that, and if they sold for less than market value, they lost only some of their own down payment. It was a pretty stable system.

So what changed?

Lenders made riskier loans to less than creditworthy folks, for one. These are “subprime loans.” Borrowers were even allowed to borrow the 20% down that used to be required in cash! In other words, they buyer walked into a home with “no money down.”

Remember that your local bank often resells your mortgage product (called “paper”) to investment banks.  Your local bank receives the loaned amount back, plus a few fees that make it a profitable deal, and they then do more. Now the out of town bank owns your mortgage and you have to send payment to them, instead of your local bank.

The investment bank will now “securitize” your mortgage. It will be bundled with thousands of other mortgages. It will be rated, based mostly on the credit of the buyers. Your little American dream home is now part of a pool of 10,000 mortgages, with about $10 million in payments coming in from borrowers every month. Investors can buy the right to a part of that pool. The more solid the credit of the borrowers, the more they are worth.

Shares of some pools are treated differently. A “collateralized debt obligation” is a securitization where some slices have priority. They are entitled to the very first payments that come in each month, and hence are the safest. Some slices of the pool only get the last of the monthly payments, so those are the risky ones. These were cheaper, but paid much higher interest, when they paid at all.

If an investment bank paid $2 million for a slice of a pool, it happily lists that as an asset and waits on the money to roll in from you and your credit-worthy neighbors. But things go badly. The investment bank has used many millions of its own money (“capital”) and borrowed much from others to invest.  To borrow, they usually sold “bonds,” which are just IOU’s with a bit of interest to be paid at some future point. These millions bought slices of mortgage pools with the income stream at 7% and it only paid out, say 1%, on their bonds. This was just a larger version of the old saving account plan mentioned in the first paragraph, and proved quite profitable.

But by 2008, housing prices and securitized subprime mortgages plummeted. Others in the same pool started selling these slices at fire sale prices. Maybe it was at only 25% of the value. Thus, the bank’s $2 million “asset” was now only worth about $500,000! The loss of 75% is called a “write down.” These, in sufficient numbers, can really affect the health of the investment bank, because it is listed just like money out the door for nothing.

Remember the bank runs in the movie, It’s a Wonderful Life? The FDIC insures all deposit accounts to prevent such panic. Other banks can also help a bank out if they are now short on assets to borrow against to pay its depositors.  But following 2008, all banks wanted to simply hold onto its cash in case it became the target of a bank run, or the other bank ultimately fails. A self-fulfilling prophecy resulted:  banks wouldn’t lend, therefore banks had no credit, and were subject to a modern day bank run. Some banks did fail, just not as many as some feared.

Companies like AIG that insured so many bonds on what is called “credit default swaps” were famously deemed “too big to fail.” While it is generally agreed that saving the banking system was required, as usual, the government acted in a wasteful and unwise way in doing it. The “bail outs” were often paid at 100% of value, which is unheard of in a fire sale.  Of course--it was not their money--it was ours.

Unfortunately, with foreclosures still sadly occurring at high rates, appraisals are bottomed out and people cannot sale or refinance their house.  Ultimately, the housing bubble popped and will probably re-inflate rather slowly. It was a return to those original rules of lending that has helped the market start the recovery.

TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’

Have you noticed how the younger folks are always looking down at their smart phones? They make up Generation Y.  That generation is generally defined as those born between 1980 and 1999. They have lost interest in many of the services and products their parents found important according to a recent article by 24/7 Wall St.

1. Cars
Teens love cars right? Well, a recent study by Gartner research revealed that, if forced to choose, 46% of all 18-to-24-year-old drivers in the United States would choose access to the Internet over access to a car! As recently as 1998, 64.4% of potential drivers ages 19 and younger had drivers licenses, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Just ten short years later, in 2008, that amount had dropped to 46.3%. People are also waiting longer to get their licenses.

2. Email
From December 2009 to December 2010, time spent using email by the 12- to 17-years-old age group dropped a tremendous 59%. While the youth drop it, their parents and grandparents are finally picking it up. In comparison, time spent using email by people 55 to 64-years-old has increased 22%, and it has increased 28% among those 65 years and older. Texting and Instant Messaging is the new order of the day.

3. Newspapers
While readership rates for print newspapers are falling across the board, the country’s younger generation has abandoned the medium the most. As of 2010, only 7% of 18- to 24-year-olds reported having read a print newspaper the day before, according to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. This is the first time that figure has reached single digits. This age group also has among the highest rates of people reportedly receiving news through social networking sites or Twitter.

4. Landline phones
Landline phones are losing popularity among Generation Y, who are becoming increasingly content with only having wireless phones. According to a report from the National Center for Health Statistics, 51.3% of Americans aged 25 to 29 lived in households with only wireless phones in the first six months of 2010. This is the first time the number of adults in wireless-only households has been greater than the number of adults in landline households for any age group.

5. Cigarettes
Smoking rates among young people have historically exceeded those of the general population. Now that group is dropping the habit quicker than anyone. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the share of people 18 to 24 years of age who were current cigarette smokers decreased by 17.6% from 2005 to 2010 — the largest decrease among any age group.

6. Desktop computers
Millennials are the only generational group to be more likely to own a laptop computer than a desktop. According to data from Pew Research Center, 70% own a laptop, while 57% own a desktop. By contrast, 64% of those aged 57-65 own a desktop, while only 43% own a laptop.

7. Television
Adults aged 18 to 24 watch less traditional television than any other age group in the country, according to Nielsen’s most recent Cross Platform Report. That group, on average, watches just under 24 hours per week. The national average is approximately 32.5 hours. One of the leading reasons for this difference is Generation Y’s relationship with the Internet. According to a report published in April 2010 by electronics review/research company Retrevo, 23% of those under 25 watch “most” of their television online now.

8. CDs
Music has changed quickly with the advent of iPods and digital songs. Back in 2002, compact discs (CDs) had a more than 95% market share of music sales. In 2010, they had less than half. Various reports suggest this decline is the result of all age groups moving away from CD sales toward digital sales.

So, this generation will not be anxious to drive, won’t smoke, won’t have a desktop computer or a landline phone, will text you in response to your email, and will not be listening to a CD, reading a newspaper or watching a TV when they finally sign off Facebook and you get them to answer their cell phone.

LOTTERIES & PROBABLITIES

LOTTERIES & PROBABILITIES

Your odds of winning the multistate Jackpot Lottery are 1 in 175,223,510.

My odds are zero, because I will not buy a ticket. I don’t like that people have to lose for me to win. My injury law practice is all on a win-win basis. I like it that way.

At any rate, numbers like 175 million are daunting. None of us deal with numbers like that. But let me put into perspective just how slim those odds really are.

Let’s look at some scary things, published by the Daily Beast, you probably have never even thought about:

Death by Vending Machine Odds: 1 in 112 million

On average, two people in the U.S. are crushed to death underneath vending machines each year. Please snack responsibly.

Dying in an Airline-Related Terrorist Attack Odds: 1 in 25 million

No one has died in an airplane-related terrorist attack since 9/11. The pat-downs of elderly people and toddlers are really paying off.

Having Identical Quadruplets Odds: 1 in 15 million

Identical quadruplets would be adorable, but you wouldn’t be able to support them because you probably won’t win the lottery…

Dying From Being Left-Handed Odds: 1 in 4.4 million

It’s a right-handed world. Apparently, a fair number of left-handed people die each year from using right-handed products incorrectly.

Becoming a Movie Star Odds: 1 in 1,505,000

There’s more than one way to make money in this world, and movie stardom is a better bet than playing the lottery.

Dying in a Plane Crash Odds: 1 in 1 million

If you are too scared to board a plane, why did you just buy a lottery ticket?

Death by Flesh-Eating Bacteria Odds: 1 in 1 million

Not as rare as one would hope, but there are worse ways to die. Maybe.

Getting Struck by Lightning Odds: 1 in 1 million.

A lightning strike is probably still preferable to flesh-eating bacteria.

Dying in a Bathtub Odds: 1 in 840,000

These odds are not an excuse for your young sons to stop bathing. Sorry boys.

Dying in an On-the-Job Accident Odds: 1 in 48,000

This is something I see on a regular basis.

Murder Odds: 1 in 18,000

Hopefully it won’t be over a lottery ticket, but if it is, at least your murderer probably won’t win, either.

Dying in a Car Accident Odds: 1 in 6,700

It is the most dangerous thing most of us will ever do. (Good luck driving to the store to buy that lottery ticket.)

I know, you are thinking that the slimmest odds are better than none, right? Someone has to win, and you figure, it could be you?

How would you feel about a man standing in field waiting on some collectable space junk to just randomly fall out the sky that he could sell for millions? Sounds crazy, right? I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but statistically you would be better off following his lead than trying the larger lottery odds.

Injury Attorney David Peel founded the Peel Law Firm in Millington in 2000. He makes himself available to speak to organizations, churches and civic clubs at no cost. To contact him and see more articles, visit PeelLawFirm.com

Emergency Funds & Go Bags

Emergency Funds & Go Bags

“Let our advance worrying become advance thinking and planning”

~ Winston Churchill (British Prime Minister during World War II)

There are things that are sure to happen in life, but we are unsure as to when. For instance, do we really believe that we will never die? No, most of us are in touch with reality enough to know we will die. So, do you have a will? If you have custody of children, whom have you picked to raise them? Waiting for the rapture is not a valid excuse to plan, either, because you will be declared legally dead if missing for a long period of time.

It has been said, “No one plans to fail, they just fail to plan.”

Our ancestors knew that “Murphy’s Law” applies. Bad things happen, and often in groups. How can you keep Murphy from succeeding in ruining everything?

Here are a couple ideas:

Keep an “Emergency Fund.” It is surprising how expenses take every available dollar. If we have nothing held back for the unforeseen, we live in a constant crisis. Everything, from a power bill to the failing transmission, is an emergency.

Dave Ramsey, the famous debt-free financial speaker heard locally in the afternoons on AM990, suggests that the first step to winning financially is a $1,000.00 emergency fund. To some, that will seem impossible. To others, it may seem miniscule. However, it is important to have a way to get emergency funds for the inevitable urgency.

The difference in the psychology of just having a bit of cushion or “margin” is hard to estimate. Without it, many have a tight belly, unable to sleep well or even take a deep breath. With it, you know there is at least a fighting chance. While money should be no substitute for faith, planning for the fact of emergencies is wise and is taught in Scripture.

The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty. Proverbs 21:5

A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. Proverbs 27:12 (NLT)

The so-called “Go-Bag” is a great idea once shared with me. Since we all will probably have to rush to the hospital for some reason, either for our infirmities or a loved ones’, we can prepare. A Go Bag is just a tote bag or large zip lock with a few items in it. Usually, people include a toothbrush, toothpaste, warm socks, a jogging or comfy sweat suit, clean underwear and a couple days’ worth of each of any prescriptions.

If your husband has chest pains, you just grab and go! That way, you do not have to leave the hospital and come home. It is infuriating to wait for hours for a doctor to make rounds, and finally you just give up and go home to change. Murphy’s Law says the doctor you need to speak to, will come by while you are gone.

Pack a Go Bag today, and stash away an emergency fund (usually in a different, out of the way bank) as soon as you can. By doing so, you will be planning for the unplanned and demonstrating a rare thing, seldom seen anymore in this world… wisdom.

David B. Peel is a local injury attorney, who lives in rural Arlington maintains his accident, disability and injury practice in Millington (just north of Chic-Fil-A). Mr. Peel speaks frequently in the area, most recently to First Baptist, the Millington Library Club, and an Arlington Bible Study Group. To contact him or see more articles see www.PeelLawFirm.com.

Live Richly

LIVING LIKE A MILLIONAIRE?

Everybody wants to be a millionaire, right?

Wrong.

I think most folks just want to live like a millionaire. It is actually different. It is not the having seven figures in the bank that dictates living richly.

This old story illustrates the difference:

A young man is lying shirtless on dock in the sun, with a hat pulled over his eyes, dozing gently in the ocean breezes. Abruptly, he is jolted awake by a crocodile skin shoe. The youth squinted up at his rude visitor.

“What are you doing asleep, here on the dock?” the well-dressed man demanded incredulously.

“Mister, I was just resting. I fished early this morning,” the young man explained.

“Well, you should not be laying around. There is plenty of daylight left! Get out there and fish some more!” the older man insisted.

“Why?” asked the sleepy-eyed youngster, yawning.

“Because, if you ran that boat twice a day, you could save enough to buy another boat,” he explained, as he tightened his tie.

“What then?” the fisherman inquired.

“Then, you could hire a crew and fish even more boats!” the businessman exclaimed, getting even louder.

“What then?” the lounging youth asked.

“Then, one day, you could control this whole seaport, and make money off every single fishing boat here, and become a very rich man!” the well-dressed man proclaimed, his arms waving wildly with every word.

“Then what?” he asked.

“Then, you could lay back, and take it easy and finally relax!” the successful businessman concluded, smugly.

The young man looked up, saying, “Mister, that’s just what I was doing when you disturbed me.”

You see, when we can truly relax—even for a little while--we are living a rich life, indeed. Whether you are relaxing in the sun by an inflatable backyard baby pool or on the beach in Mexico, it feels pretty similar when you close your eyes.

Those who live richly are not those who have all they want. It is those who passionately want whatever they have.